The Spread: Ohio Senate 2026
Kalshi says 65% Republican. Cook says Lean R. The fundamentals say Toss Up. Here's why they disagree — and who we think is right.
Welcome to The Heat Sheet
Introducing a new kind of political analysis publication — one built on calibration, transparency, and accountability.
Why We Grade Prediction Markets
A 62% on Kalshi doesn't mean the same thing as a 62% on Polymarket. Here's why market health matters — and how we measure it.